The effects of global climate change on vulnerable plants in Organ Pipe Cactus NM and Pinacate Biosphere Reserve: a long term demographic approach. UA-NPS-SWBRPP/ECG/2018.
Resumen
Plant populations in the Sonoran Desert are thought to be vulnerable to environmental global change. This is because climatic predictions for this area forecast dramatic changes in the intensity and variability of temperature and precipitation in the next few decades (IPCC 2007). Water availability, which can be influenced by temperature and precipitation, is tightly linked to plant population dynamics in desert ecosystems (Noy-Meyr 1972, Schwinning et al. 2004). It is therefore important to understand what changes in environmental conditions will cause in vulnerable desert plant populations.
In order to understand the consequences of climate change on vulnerable plant populations, we will couple available long term demographic data sets from vulnerable plants from Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument with climatic projections from the IPCC. This is a powerful approach to modeling population growth in the face of a changing climate in the desert (Salguero-Gomez et al. 2012). This has been done for annual and short lived desert plants but never done for long lived perennials due to the lack of available long term demographic data sets. We will take advantage of the data collected by the Ecological Monitoring Program of Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument established in the late 80’s. Once we understand the relationship of long term population growth with temperature and precipitation we will be able to project the future of those populations via demography-based niche modelling. Additionally, we propose to establish new long term demography plots in Reserva de la Biósfera El Pinacate y Gran Desierto de Altar in Sonora, Mexico. Pinacate and Organ Pipe have a long history of collaboration with shared natural resources but there is still the need to share and generate long term demographic information on vulnerable plants on both sides of the border.
One exceptional data set is that from E. erectocentrus var. acunensis. E. erectocentrus is a small cactus with very restricted distribution occurring in a small and isolated population in Organ Pipe CNM, Sonoyta, Sonora, Mexico and a couple other populations north of Organ Pipe. Organ Pipe Cactus NM established long term plots to monitor vital rates of this species in the park back in 1988 and has continued monitoring the population every year since then. Actually, long term demographic data sets from desert long lived perennials are rare in the world so it could be a great opportunity to use this data to study the effects of climate change in the Sonoran Desert.
The first year we will also establish long term demographic plots to study E. erectocentrus in Pinacate, Sonora, Mexico. These plots will allow us to compare demographic processes with the population in Organ Pipe. By the second year we pretend to submit papers of long term demography and climate change to peer reviewed ecological journals.
Colaboración:
University of Arizona y National Park Service mediante el programa The Southwest Border Resource Protection Program.
